Sectors / Space & Orbital Infrastructure

The orbital economy
finds its price.

Launch costs are still falling. Constellations are still filling in. The pure-play space names finally have revenue, backlog, and — in a few cases — a path to cash. R2A tracks 47 names across launch, satellites, ground systems, and aerospace components. Here's what's worth watching.

47
Names covered
19
Buy calls
6
Hold
21
Private comps
Orbital infrastructure — planet horizon, satellites, rocket trajectory

The Thesis

The space industry has spent fifteen years promising economics that didn't arrive. They're arriving now. Reusable launch has pulled the cost of getting a kilogram to low-Earth orbit from ~$10,000 in 2010 to under $1,500 today, and the curve still bends down. That single change cascades: bigger satellites, faster constellation refresh, real broadband from space, real Earth observation as a service, real space-based compute as a near-term frontier rather than a sci-fi punchline.

R2A's variant view: the market still prices most public space names as if launch is the bottleneck. Increasingly it isn't. The new bottleneck is downstream — ground infrastructure, optical inter-satellite links, spectrum, and the software that turns raw orbital data into something a customer pays for. The names that own pieces of that stack — Rocket Lab end-to-end, AST SpaceMobile on direct-to-handset, Planet on analytics-grade imagery — are the ones whose addressable market has just expanded by an order of magnitude. The names that don't own a piece of the new stack are pricing in growth they may not capture.

The Names

All Buy Hold Launch & Platform Satellites Private
RKLB
Buy Conviction High
Rocket Lab USA · Launch & Platform
Only vertically integrated public space company besides SpaceX. Electron proven, Neutron medium-lift coming, Space Systems is the surprise margin engine.
Scenario range
$50 $140 $220 $380
Bear Base Bull Moon
Last price$119.83
R2A fair value i$173
ASTS
Buy Conviction Medium
AST SpaceMobile · Direct-to-cell satellites
Phone-to-satellite without a special handset. If it works at scale, it rewires global mobile. Capital-heavy, binary, but the deals are real.
Scenario range
$25 $95 $165 $270
Bear Base Bull Moon
Last price$76.47
R2A fair value i$102
Private
SpaceX
Watch Conviction High
Launch · Starlink · Starship
The gravitational center of the entire sector. Starlink alone now generates run-rate revenue that dwarfs every public peer combined. Starship is the option on space at industrial scale.
Scenario range
~$500B ~$1.0T ~$1.6T $2.5T
Bear Base Bull Moon
Last reported~$1.0T
AccessNot public
PL
Hold Conviction Medium
Planet Labs · Earth observation
Daily images of every spot on Earth. The data is real; the business model is still finding its pricing power. Pelican constellation upgrade is the catalyst to watch.
Scenario range
$20 $40 $65 $130
Bear Base Bull Moon
Last price$41.43
R2A fair value i$53.75
LUNR
Hold Conviction Medium
Intuitive Machines · Lunar services
One of two companies that has actually landed something on the Moon this decade. Government-funded path to lunar economy. Story stock until contract cadence proves out.
Scenario range
$10 $32 $55 $105
Bear Base Bull Moon
Last price$32.29
R2A fair value i$37.35
BKSY
Buy Conviction Medium
BlackSky · Real-time Earth intel
Geospatial intelligence with shorter revisit times than competitors. Defense-heavy revenue mix is both the moat and the concentration risk.
Scenario range
$18 $50 $90 $150
Bear Base Bull Moon
Last price$35.56
R2A fair value i$70
RDW
Buy Conviction Medium
Redwire · Space infrastructure parts
The Hexcel of orbit — sells the components everyone needs. Less binary than the pure-play names; benefits if any constellation builds out.
Scenario range
$14 $32 $80 $185
Bear Base Bull Moon
Last price$12.05
R2A fair value i$63.56
HEI
Buy Conviction Medium
HEICO · Aerospace components compounder
The quiet compounder. Sells parts into aerospace and defense supply chains with structural pricing power. Less moonshot, more sleep-at-night.
Scenario range
$220 $305 $370
Bear Base Bull Moon
Last price$277.30
R2A fair value i$310
Private
Blue Origin
Watch Conviction Medium
Heavy-lift launch · Lunar lander
New Glenn is finally flying. The credible second source to SpaceX on heavy lift — which matters increasingly to the government and to anyone who doesn't want a launch monopoly.
Scenario range
~$60B ~$120B
Bear Base Bull Moon
StatusPrivate
OwnerBezos

Full Coverage

Every name R2A tracks in this sector — 47 in all. Click any column header to sort. Public names with prices and fair values; private comps shown for ecosystem context.

Ticker Company Call Conviction Last R2A FV Moon
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
Launch / Platform
Buy ●●● High $119.83 $173.50 $380
ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
D2D Satellite
Buy ●● Medium $76.47 $102.00 $270
BKSY
BlackSky Technology
Imagery Intel
Buy ●● Medium $35.56 $70.00 $150
FLY
Firefly Aerospace
Small-lift / Lunar
Buy ●● Medium $33.80 $50.00
HEI
HEICO
Aerospace Components
Buy ●● Medium $277.30 $310.00
HWM
Howmet Aerospace
Aerospace Alloys
Buy ●● Medium $239.65 $270.00 $400
HXL
Hexcel
Aerospace Composites
Buy ●● Medium $93.54 $115.00 $185
KRMN
Karman Holdings
Space + Missile Components
Buy ●● Medium $61.27 $90.00
MOG.A
Moog (Class A)
Motion Control / Valves
Buy ●● Medium $300.52 $360.00 $500
MRCY
Mercury Systems
Rad-Hard Electronics
Buy ●● Medium $79.74 $110.00 $200
NNDM
Nano Dimension
3D Printing Electronics
Buy ●● Medium $1.93 $3.00
RDW
Redwire
ISAM / Servicing
Buy ●● Medium $12.05 $63.56 $185
SATL
Satellogic
Earth Observation (small-cap)
Buy ●● Medium $7.18 $9.40
SATS
EchoStar
Spectrum + SpaceX Backdoor
Buy ●● Medium $117.59 $145.00
SPIR
Spire Global
Small-sat Data
Buy ●● Medium $18.20 $20.00
TDG
TransDigm
Aerospace Components
Buy ●● Medium $1,208.57 $1,500.00
TDY
Teledyne Technologies
Space Electronics + Optics
Buy ●● Medium $640.00 $725.00 $950
VOYG
Voyager Technologies
Defense + Space Solutions
Buy ●● Medium $26.56 $40.00
VSAT
Viasat
Satellite Broadband / L-band
Buy ●● Medium $65.12 $74.00
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
Lunar Services
Hold ●● Medium $32.29 $37.35 $105
PL
Planet Labs
Earth Observation
Hold ●● Medium $41.43 $53.75 $130
PSN
Parsons
Space + Missile Defense
Hold ●● Medium $50.87 $63.00
IRDM
Iridium Communications
LEO Satellite Comms
Hold ●● Low $39.44 $43.00
SIDU
Sidus Space
Space Services (early-stage)
Hold ●● Low $3.38 $3.00
VELO
Velo3D
3D Printing / Aerospace
Hold ●● Low $13.51 $2.00
MNTS
Momentus
In-space Transport (impaired)
Sell ●● Low $4.57 $3.50
Astranis
Astranis Space
Small GEO Broadband
Watch ●●● High
Blue Origin
Blue Origin
Heavy-lift Launch + Lunar Lander
Watch ●●● High
Capella
Capella Space
Commercial SAR
Watch ●●● High
ICEYE
ICEYE
Commercial SAR
Watch ●●● High
K2 Space
K2 Space
High-power LEO/MEO Satellites
Watch ●●● High
Lynk
Lynk Global
D2D Satellite (ASTS competitor)
Watch ●●● High
Relativity
Relativity Space
3D-printed Rockets
Watch ●●● High
SpaceX
SpaceX
Launch · Starlink · Starship
Watch ●●● High ~$1.0T $2.5T
True Anomaly
True Anomaly
On-orbit Defense
Watch ●●● High
ICON
ICON
Lunar Surface 3D Printing
Watch ●● Medium
Lunar Outpost
Lunar Outpost
Lunar Surface Mobility
Watch ●● Medium
Lunar Resources
Lunar Resources
Lunar Water Ice Extraction
Watch ●● Medium
Overview Energy
Overview Energy
Space-based Solar Power
Watch ●● Medium
Sierra Space
Sierra Space
Spaceplane + Stations
Watch ●● Medium
Stoke
Stoke Space
Full Reusability Launch
Watch ●● Medium
Astrobotic
Astrobotic
Lunar Landers + Logistics
Watch ●● Low
AstroForge
AstroForge
Asteroid Mining (early)
Watch ●● Low
Astroport
Astroport
Lunar Regolith / Construction
Watch ●● Low
Axiom
Axiom Space
Commercial Astronaut / ISS
Watch ●● Low
TransAstra
TransAstra
Asteroid Water / Propellant
Watch ●● Low
Vast
Vast Space
Commercial Space Station
Watch ●● Low

Call Log

Every time R2A moved a name to Buy, Hold, or Sell — when, and the one-line reason. No grades. The record speaks for itself.

Date Ticker Call Why
2026·05·08 ASTS Buy Direct-to-cell unit economics confirmed by Verizon and AT&T deal terms. Moved up from Hold.
2026·05·08 RKLB Buy Reaffirmed after Q1 record revenue, Mynaric acquisition closes optical inter-satellite link gap.
2026·04·22 BKSY Buy Defense backlog and Gen-3 satellite revisit cadence justify re-rating.
2026·04·18 LUNR Hold Contract cadence still unproven post-IM-2; staying on the bench until IM-3 data.
2026·04·15 RDW Buy Edge Autonomy acquisition + Hera deck delivery proves the platform-parts thesis.
2026·04·02 PL Hold Pelican constellation slipping; pricing power still unproven. Held off Buy upgrade.
2026·03·12 VELO Hold Cash runway narrow; awaiting new financing or strategic resolution. Moved down from Buy.
2026·02·28 IRDM Hold Defensive cash flows intact but ASTS represents structural long-term competitive risk.
2026·01·20 HEI Buy Initiated coverage. Compounder profile, pricing power, defense supply chain exposure.