Sectors / Quantum

A different kind
of compute.

Quantum is the longest-dated bet on this site. R2A tracks 10 names across trapped ions, neutral atoms, superconducting qubits, and photonic systems. The payoff is decades out; the optionality is real and underappreciated.

10
Names covered
1
Buy calls
4
Hold
4
Private comps
Illustration: trapped ion arrays

The Thesis

Quantum computing has been five years away from working since the early 1990s. Two things changed recently that make this cycle different. First, error correction at scale moved from theoretical to demonstrated. Second, NVIDIA's release of CUDA-Q and the Ising model framework gave quantum systems a place inside the classical AI compute stack — they don't have to replace classical compute, they have to accelerate a narrow set of problems classical compute can't reach.

R2A's variant view: the public-market opportunity here is concentrated. IonQ is the only Buy because trapped-ion architecture has demonstrated fidelity (99.99% world record), and the Quantinuum merger consolidates the trapped-ion segment. Everything else is too early or too speculative for a Buy. D-Wave and Rigetti are real companies with real revenue but the architectures are betting against the consensus. The private companies — Quantinuum, PsiQuantum, Pasqal, Atom Computing — are where the deepest technical progress is happening. Quantum is sized as optionality, not core. Friends-and-family-appropriate framing: this is the smallest exposure, the longest horizon, and the binary risk is real.

The Names

All Buy Hold Private
IONQ
Buy Conviction High
IonQ · Trapped-Ion Quantum Computing
The most credible pure-play quantum computer. Trapped-ion architecture, $370M RPO backlog, AWS/Azure/GCP cloud access. Quantinuum merger consolidates the trapped-ion segment.
Scenario range
$12$63$100$160
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$46.65
R2A fair value$63
QBTS
Hold Conviction Low
D-Wave · Quantum Annealing
The only public quantum annealer. Different architecture, different problems. Optimization use cases are real but the gate-model platforms keep stealing mindshare.
Scenario range
$8$29$60$150
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$20.47
R2A fair value$29.20
Private
Quantinuum
Watch Conviction High
Quantinuum · Trapped-Ion (Honeywell)
Honeywell-majority trapped-ion company. Merging with IonQ. Deep technical bench; the most credible private bet alongside PsiQuantum.
Scenario range (private)
~$10B~$20B$50B+
BearBaseBullMoon
Last reported~$10B
AccessMerging with IONQ
Private
PsiQuantum
Watch Conviction High
PsiQuantum · Photonic Quantum
Photonic architecture, building toward million-qubit fault-tolerant systems. Australia + Illinois funding. The single most ambitious technical roadmap among the privates.
Scenario range (private)
~$6B~$15B$40B+
BearBaseBullMoon
Last reported~$6B
AccessNot public
RGTI
Sell Conviction High
Rigetti · Superconducting Qubits
Superconducting qubit architecture without the scale of IBM or Google. Revenue is light, runway is constrained, and the technical gap to the leaders is widening.
Scenario range
$3$9$22
BearBaseBullMoon
Last price$17.50
R2A fair value$9.10
Private
Pasqal
Watch Conviction High
Pasqal · Neutral-Atom Quantum
French neutral-atom platform. Different physics, real scaling progress. European sovereignty story is part of the funding tailwind.
Scenario range (private)
~$1B~$3B$10B+
BearBaseBullMoon
Last reported~$1B
AccessNot public

Full Coverage

Every name R2A tracks in Quantum. Click any column header to sort.

Ticker Company Call Conviction Last R2A FV Moon
IONQ
IonQ
Trapped-Ion Quantum
Buy●●● High$46.65$63.00$160
ARQQ
Arqit Quantum
Quantum Cybersecurity
Hold●● Medium$14.52$17.00
INFQ
Infleqtion
Neutral-Atom Quantum
Hold●● Medium$12.39$17.00
QBTS
D-Wave Quantum
Quantum Annealing
Hold●● Low$20.47$29.20$150
QUBT
Quantum Computing Inc
Quantum Computing
Hold●● Low$9.21$9.30
Atom Computing
Atom Computing
Neutral-Atom Quantum
Watch●●● High
Pasqal
Pasqal
Neutral-Atom Quantum
Watch●●● High
PsiQuantum
PsiQuantum
Photonic Quantum
Watch●●● High
Quantinuum
Quantinuum
Trapped-Ion (Honeywell)
Watch●●● High
RGTI
Rigetti Computing
Superconducting Qubits
Sell●●● High$17.50$9.10